Did you write plane letters to your friends when you were younger? Back when I was in elementary school, the week before a big holiday break consisted of writing notes to my friends sealed with strict instructions NOT to open until their plane reached cruising altitude. I don’t know if this happened with others besides my group of friends, but reading 10+ handwritten letters from your friends was a great way to kick off a trip, and an even better way for kids to pass time in the pre-wifi/ipad/tv/movies era of air travel.
So if you're headed someplace warm, cold, near or far… feel free to save this read (and tomorrow’s companion piece) for your flight. (Also: Bring extra masks, don't take them off other than to take a few sips of water... and remember that the least safe times on the plane are not in-flight, but during the boarding and exiting, when the aircraft's ventilation systems are not operating at full strength. Also, check out these personal, portable air purifiers!)
Last year's final Four P's included 21 predictions heading into 2021, I'm going to one-up that with 22 things to think about -- some reflective looking back, some predictive looking forward, others just observational and informational -- and read on the plane this week
SOME THING(s) PERSONAL
1. The Year That Wasn’t: So 2021 did not go as planned. Or maybe it did for those of us with a baseline understanding of unenforced virus mitigation efforts. It has been a year that rivals 2020 in terms of overall shittiness. It started out ok, with the rollout of a COVID vaccine, the acquisition of my company, and the values of cryptocurrencies AND the stock market were both riding high. Then somewhere around January 6th, things went off the rails and we never really recovered. The fact that only a handful or conspirators will see minimal prison time is a major stain on our nation's history that can't be washed out with any of the remaining bleach left over from Trump supporters in their rogue self-treatment of COVID.
2. Pi Charting: The year started with Delta and ends with Omicron. Somewhere in between is like 10 Greek letters and, presumably, variants that didn't get as much attention. We're in the midst of a terrible surge that is sweeping the nation/world faster than any variant before. Thankfully the severity of symptoms and illness is much lower in those who are 3x-vaccinated. Who knows what will come next, and when? We hope the vaccination status continues to rise, with three vaccines now being the baseline. Until, of course, we see the rise of Pi variant, around mid-March (maybe 3.14?).
3. Viral and Exponential Growth: One thing that actually went better when expected is the record growth of this newsletter. After making the difficult mid-year decision to transitioned away from the three-pronged attack of newsletter/podcast/vidcast, putting all of my energy back into writing has been most rewarding. It allowed me to build back some old muscles, while also saving me time/energy AND sparing you from having to look at and listen to me. I never expected this to grow as large as it has, but to you, my thousands of readers, many of whom I don't even know and will never meet: Thank you for your support.
4. Fan Fiction: As I look back on the year that could have been, it's impossible to ignore another slate of disappointing campaigns from my favorite sports teams. Not one won a championship, or even make the playoffs. The Mets started their 2021 on a great run, with start pitcher Jacob deGrom off to an unprecedented start... only to get injured and shut down for the season, then followed up by a pretty historic collapse in the second half. As a sports fan, it's hard to maintain the level of passion I had for my teams when I was younger. Not only am I busier with new priorities, but the losing and disappointment compounds. The only notable exception this year has been the University of Michigan football team, which is playing in the College Football Playoffs for the first time ever. After defeating Ohio State several weeks ago, then dominating Iowa in the Big 10 title game, Michigan next plays Georgia in Fort Lauderdale, with Alabama and Cincinnati playing in the other game. While the odds are not on Michigan's favor to win it all, at least there's a chance.
5. Picture This: At a time when people are posting more photos and videos to social media feeds, I actually took far fewer pictures this year than ever before. Looking back on the lost year that was, I will regret not taking more, but there really weren't as many opportunities or occasions to capture as we didn't leave the house as often in 2021 (or 2020, for that matter). This was the first year in as long as I can remember where we didn't have enough quality images of our family to send a holiday card to friends and family. This isn't how I envisioned things going. I'm the guy who spent months researching state-of-the-art, expensive, powerful DSLR cameras when my son was born over 10 years ago so I didn't miss a moment. Nowadays, the cameras in our smartphones produce images far superior to that device, and we can edit and upload those images directly to the cloud. For 2022, I'm resolving to take more pictures and create more memories, whether I choose to share them more publicly or not.
6. Unicorn Start-up: One of the great experiences of my life this past year was helping my 7 year-old daughter launch her own t-shirt and apparel company. Unicorn Horn started as a concept, evolved into a jingle, quickly became a project, and ultimately a business. Watching her imagination produce a real-world enterprise fills me with great pride, even if we aren't billionaires (yet). Start-ups that turn into massive global companies are often called "unicorns," because they're rare and magical.
Now I know very little about small businesses, let alone fashion/retail, but taking her art and putting it on t-shirts, hats, sweatshirts, school gear, even pet apparel (and NFTs) was a ton of fun and a great learning experience for both of us. We leveraged a drop-ship printing company as well as a relationship with Shopify to sell many items in Year 1. While we've hit a bit of a growth plateau over the past few months, we've got some new ideas, new products, and new energy heading into 2022, so please support our budding entrepreneur and know that a % of all of the proceeds either go to charity of Syd's college savings account. And just to show you how savvy my daughter is, when I asked her to name the Four P’s this week, her response was on point: “Pigs. Poop. People and Pee.”
SOME THING(s) PROFESSIONAL
7. Creative Will Overtake Data: "Big Data" got most of the headlines in the marketing and advertising ecosystem with marketers and advertisers over the past decade, and it turns out that it may have been overrated all along. Things change faster than the analysts can track, and privacy regulations will dominate the advertising ecosystem in 2022, so the importance of creative will come back to the fore. Creative has been undervalued as a lever in terms of personalization, and it’s coming back with force. In addition to engagement, strong creative will be brands’ biggest driver of performance, too. For brands and marketers, investing in a creative strategy is instrumental in an advertising world that’s no longer ruled by algorithmic targeting anymore. So get creative with the (limited) privacy-friendly data that's available, and you’ll find fun ways to offer personalized ad experiences to your audience. The key to finding the right creative direction and best-performing ads is a robust creative testing plan—knowing what resonates with our audience is the foundation for any successful campaign.
8. Brands Will Open the Data Privacy Dialogue: With new privacy regulations on the way, brands need to change the communication from talking AT their audience to talking WITH their audience. Most still don't know how (and that goes for brands and consumers). When consumers click “opt-in” or “track cookies,” they typically don’t understand why. The result is a one-sided imbalance, leading to a lack of trust in the brand, primarily because of what they hear and with very little or no context. In 2022 and beyond, let's hope that some intelligent advertisers will change this (ahem). New privacy regulations have created the opportunity to have open conversations with consumers about their data. Brands will take newfound ownership over what they’re doing with consumer data, and give consumers transparent insights, education, and resources to realize what their data is being used for and why.
9. The Network Effect: I just finished Andrew Chen's great book, The Cold Start Problem and whether you work at a big or small brand, an agency, a publisher, a media platform, or any kind of start-up, understanding the Network Effect is important for navigating your ecosystem. Chen is a partner at a16z and one of the early leads at Uber, and shares some great stories about companies and products we use every day, as well as some critical concepts that really make or break a new or growing company. "Come for the tool, stay for the network" is one of my favorites. But considering every marketer in the world should be looking to tap into the network effect of consumer adoption, it's a must-read. From Twitch to Paypal to Instagram, some universal requirements are needed, whereas each story is unique. In my opinion, the next "biggest digital company in the world" is going to be Coinbase. It's changing commerce, identity, community, and the entire economy. Here's their CEO, Brian Armstrong, on the metaverse and web3.
10. The Year of Branded NFTs: Yes, another NFT segment. Why? Because we've barely just scratched the surface. What you've seen until now is barely an indication of what the Token Economy will become in 2022. Brands have a place, and an important one, in this evolving ecosystem. But it's critical to remember that this is a marathon, not a sprint. Strategy + Creativity + Community + Technology. Remember it, repeat it, represent it. Adidas made some great headway, but then dropped a first collection at a high cost of 0.2 eth and seemingly forgot its mission of equitable access. Budweiser and Pepsi's drops both got canned (hehe). White Castle... Who the F knows what to think anymore? It's clear that many still haven't figured it out yet, but we DO know that NFT prices and revenue are not the KPIs we should be looking at to assess branded NFT innovation. Utility to the consumer and making projects accessible to a broader audience are two core priorities. Then there are the cool DAOs, for buying an English soccer club to doing the same for a major golf course.
11. WFH WTF: Whereas most of thought there was a chance we'd be returning to an office in 2021, that turned out not to be the case for a large percentage of the workforce. And we've gotten comfortable, even productive and efficient, in this model. While some of the organic interactions that happen in an office are important, even necessary in some industries, I no longer believe in permanent, full-time office setups for most industries (including mine). Given the international nature of what I do, I'm on video calls all day long now, and being in an office is just not ideal for this model with any degree of regularity. Companies that can offer full remote positions are much more appealing than those that cannot, and some of those businesses are only pushing to re-open to justify the exorbitant rent/overhead costs that they cannot undo. Look for more of this tension (which is already percolating below the surface) to bubble up in the months to come.
Continue here with Part 2 of this year-end / year-beginning opus.