Here is the last Four P's of 2020, as we will take a week to pause, catch our breaths, relax and reflect on what we learned this year. A special thank you to all of the new viewers, listeners and subscribers this year. 2020 saw over 175 P's... And what a year it was! How will you remember it?
Mine started off like the last few, with family on vacation in the warm, southern sunshine. I had published a wildly successful “2020 Predictions” post just a few days before. But within hours, it took a wrong turn and it just kept going. A text from a former colleague that our former commissioner David Stern had passed away… Weeks later, it was Kobe... then COVID. Every plan, every prediction, every idea, every resolution made... out the window!
Now nearly 9 months later, here we are again. We've got a vaccine on the way, a new President-elect moving in, we’ve already had a big snowfall, the kids are off from school and the New Year's Eve hats, masks and noisemakers have arrived. Optimism springs anew! With maybe a touch of realism. So on the cusp of another new year, I feel compelled to try again... to make some predictions for 2021… knowing full well that something totally crazy and unexpected is going to blow it all up again.
Something Personal: So Many Predictions, So Little Time.
1. January 2021 will be the deadliest month on record globally for COVID to date. Blame Christmas gatherings. A month ago, we were at 100k new cases/day. Now we're over 200k/day. Just you wait...
2. The Super Bowl, scheduled for Sunday February 7, if it isn't delayed, is going to be underwhelming for several reasons: Both teams will be missing players due to COVID. The pre-game build-up "scene" (fewer journalists, celebrities, hype, etc.) in Tampa Bay will be depressing. And the game will be played in a partially-filled stadium.
(Also, the fact that Super Bowl LV is not in Las Vegas is just silly.)
3. Speaking of the Super Bowl, this will be the worst “Big Game” in memory for ads and commercials. With many big brands cutting back or investing more in digital, others taking a wait-and-see approach, and even more unable to blow out big commercial productions, it's going to be an underwhelming year for creative spots. And that’s if anyone even watches. (2020 NFL viewership is way down (~10% YOY).
4. I won't listen to a single podcast in 2021, but I promise not to judge everyone inside the echo chamber of mutual reinforcement and professional backslapping who contributes to the podcast proliferation pandemic.
5. A minor COVID baby boom may spike in the next few weeks, 40 weeks since quarantines first began. But that will be nothing compared to the post-COVID dating boom we may see near the end of 2021. Once singles can get out and truly start dating again without fear of catching the the 'VID, it's going to be a fuc... I mean fun-fest the likes of which we haven't seen in years. And while I personally won’t be impacted by either the baby boom or a dating boom, the potential for huge boosts to sites like Match.com will heavily inform my stock purchasing and investment strategies.
6. With the #BlackLivesMatter efforts truly growing into a mainstream movement, 2020 was a year where DEI went mainstream as a priority for companies, with big hires, but without as much tangible progress from top to bottom-of-organizations. Yet I am hopeful that we will see more mass rallies and gatherings, marches and peaceful expressions of protest (once safe again) to continue bringing awareness and pushing for real, lasting change.
7. I will finally get my COVID-19 vaccine on June 21st, six months from now. Let’s all hope that this vaccine continues to be effective against rapidly-mutating COVID strains we're already seeing spread in Europe.
8. Another year will pass without me attending a Major League baseball game, or any sporting event for that matter. I just don’t see how stadiums can let fans back until we hit threshold vaccine deployment. Also, the 2020-21 Olympics will be permanently shuttered.
Those are a few predictions to get us started... but I have no intention of stopping there.
Something Practical: Bitcoin, Lolli and Ecommerce
9. One thing I did get right was my prediction last year that 2020 would be a BIG year for Bitcoin. As of this weekend, it topped a value of over $24,000 for 1 BTC. When I bought in a few years ago when the price was already at $4,000, I should have gone all-in. Now that would have been a prediction. That said, I'm not complaining. And it's not too late to jump in... I predict it will get to $30k by the end of 2021, if not higher. Big businesses are getting involved, including my favorite, an ecomm platform called Lolli that gives you BTC back for purchases at major retailers. This is my PRACTICAL TIP OF THE YEAR! Ecomm + BTC is THE perfect combo.
10. Speaking of ecommerce, the shop-from-home explosion that saw a 25% increase YOY in sales in 2020 will continue to increase, but the rate of growth will definitely plateau in 2021 as we resume some semblance of previous activities, combined with a hunger and a thirst for getting back out there. Group M is predicting an increase from $3.9 trillion to $4.6 trillion, an 18% increase, because it's not like we can just flip a switch on New Year's Day and accelerate vaccine deployment. Their same report for the U.S., specifically, next year, predicts that ecommerce will account for 16.2% of retail sales, which means over 80% is still going to be done in a physical environment. This will be one of the biggest stories of the year: how quickly we revert back to old norms and behaviors as we each get our vaccines.
11. Another year goes by without any progress in federalized decriminalization of marijuana, severely limiting the on-the-cusp Pot Boom that will come once marketing, communications and media can be streamlined on a national level.
Something Political: Change in the Air. Or is That Gun Powder?
12. Ossoff and Warnock flip the Senate. Georgia elects two and "goes blue," pushing the upper chamber into a Democratic-led control. But the election has additionally divisive consequences. Republicans will not go quietly and accept defeat. Our government enters a brief faux/illegal Constitutional "crisis" while another election is challenged, further buoying Trump's plans for a barnstorming tour across the South and Midwest.
13. The movement of Alternative America creates a parallel path in January, and possibly beyond. The millions of 2020 election deniers are not going away, and continue to chase their tails in a frothing frenzy of falsehoods. And it will get violent. How can it not? We have gun nuts being fed conspiracy theories about the end of democracy. So the question becomes how does the sane, non-violent majority manage this crisis? We need law enforcement to truly help protect and serve, and not fuel the flames of further fear and fighting.
14. While we will not see a civil war the likes of 1861 ever again, with armies of split countrymen and neighbors lining up across a battlefield, the real battles will be waged on social media. President Biden will be forced to limit, restrict, manage and rein in the the escalating and increasingly divisive, violent rhetoric on these platforms. And at the same time, he and the government must do everything in their power to mitigate the virtual invasions by Russia and China into our social, political and economic discourse. They're further dividing the American house, pushing us towards internal annihilation and watching as our civility crumbles.
15. If (when?) President Biden is able to govern with a willing partner in Congress, we're going to see the biggest, most wide-reaching efforts to combat deteriorating global climate change in our history. Investments in renewable energy and safe, clean technology will become priority causes for business leaders, as well, even in parallel with fighting the spread of Coronavirus.
Something Professional: Official Business
16. When we return to offices again in 2021, things are going to be weird. And they're going to feel weird for awhile. Staggered schedules, new safety protocols and social awkwardness will be our new, NEW normal after not having spent long stretches of time with people outside of our immediate families. There's also the adjustment period needed after months of nonchalant flatulence while on mute... which is fine when working from home, but not in a shared space.
17. What happens with video conferencing is anyone's guess. But one thing is for certain: it's not going away. Sure, video conference platform usage will drop overall as we return to offices, so how these companies innovate and redesign their tools and platforms will be fascinating. Zoom has achieved "verb status" ahead of its competitive landscape, but Microsoft has Teams and Google has Meet, so where does Zoom go from here? Will colleagues Zoom from their desks instead of meeting in conference rooms? What about AR/VR in the conference rooms of the future? And will someone BUY Zoom? SalesForce, Facebook and IBM all could make a play.
18. B2B and B2C marketing strategies/tactics meet in the middle. The methodology for achieving marketing success are becoming the same: Use data to understand the customer/consumer, identify which platforms will best reach them, customize content for the audience and platform, then target them effectively. In other words, Instagram Stories + LinkedIn Stories + Tweet Fleets... or some combination thereof.
19. Utility over empathy. We don't need brands feeling sorry for us or "showing that they care." We increasingly need them to deliver utility to meet our evolving needs and challenges. "Humanization," "personalization," and "empathy" are all just marketing spin terms that distract from the fact that real brand purpose is to solve consumer problems. Turning off automated and canned responses will benefit everyone when times are good and bad, but humanizing brands is overthinking it.
20. Influencer Marketing will become just.... marketing as new and increasing data privacy laws, changes to analytics tools, and the loss of third-party cookies force us to reimagine things. "Influencers" will always be on the cusp of innovation, but there is an impending consolidation as marketers need greater consistency, control and stability. In 2021, we'll see a big shift in brands, agencies and platforms hiring influencers directly to work for them. Sure, a select few can survive and thrive on their own, but most will not.
21. When my company returns to work together, one more prediction: Things are going to be very different for my Revelation team. Big things are happening and changing very quickly. All in good ways. So stay tuned after the holiday break for some major personal and professional news along those lines. Any predictions what it will be?
No matter what happens in 2021, we're still in it together, right?
Best wishes for a happy, healthy holiday and new year!