We made it to the last Four Ps of the year, the 200th edition since first launching at the beginning of 2018. We’ve been through a lot since then, and I’m grateful to those of you who found this along the way. So before this devolves into another cliché EOY predictions piece, here's one guarantee:
Change and uncertainty are coming across the spectrum of all Four Ps.
SOMETHING PROFESSIONAL: PROs and...
What initially began as a short-term consulting project to help Mint’s original two founders with go-to-market brand strategy in the summer of 2021 turned into a professional passion for Web3. It also became a great partnership that saw product development, project creativity, process creation, partnerships, and innovative positioning flourish.
I'm confident that the platform will expand to offer incredible, simplified brand marketing activations and meaningful consumer experiences at the intersection of blockchain, affinity, loyalty, and identity. So what next? Vision and strategic leadership in Web 2.5 is transitioning:
Web3 Leadership: This next phase is going to be interesting and important. 2022 was about building the tech rails and building for the future. 2023 will be about creating for the present. Web3 is gaining ground and will enhance all facets of the business, just as it did during the first two phases of digital engagement. Now we need the strategy + creative leads at agencies and consultancies, as well as the innovative brand marketers + executives to lead the way on chain. This inflection point is similar to early 2009, when transformational platforms like Google, Facebook, YouTube, Amazon, etc. presented brands with new opportunities to connect with consumers. To meet them where they're going. Merch, fan clubs, ticketing, D2C relationships, pricing, royalty payments, and content creation itself are being affected. I couldn't be more excited about where we are going. Soon enough Web3 will just be part of our daily experience and we can drop the confusing jargon and focus on the user/consumer benefits.
Web3 Strategists: Digital tokens will be a primary onboarding tool for brands to onboard audiences into metaverse experiences. It's Step 5, and brands need to start on Step 1. The most practical to build Web3 activations is through tokenization and token-gated experiences. From futility ("NFT 1.0") to utility, token-gated experiences can reward with both digital and physical goods/ services. As brand marketers learn how to work with existing Web3 creators and communities, they will also collaborate on decentralized co-creation efforts to engage their audiences in a more personalized way. We'll see the rise of Virtual Influencers, improved Web3-focused community tools, and Blockchain-led enterprise educational programs.
Web3 Infiltrators: Now is also the time for Web3 thought leaders and builders to move past #Web3 conferences, break free from the echo chamber, and push into events where established execs play. Fish where the fish are. You can’t proliferate messages and value by talking to the same people who already bought in.
AI tinkerers: It's having a moment. And tech will only get better as it floods and learns. There's interest. There's opportunity. There's inevitability. But no, this was still not written by ChatGPT and never will be.
AR/VR builders: Not new, but also expanding, we'll see more mainstream applications, from virtual performers, events, interaction, content, and commerce. merch - There’s so much happening in the virtual space. I’m most excited about brands that find a new word besides "phygital" to bridge the gap between metaverse experiences and the physical world with products and performances. Elvis and Tupac are still alive in VR, my son is doing... something awkwardly dancelike with his Oculus.
New-stalgia creators: 2022 was big on nostalgia, especially with collectibles and heritage brands making a comeback for the Web3 era. Next year, I expect to see more, bigger "has been" brands leverage nostalgia as a powerful marketing tactic to launch, re-launch, or build new brands.
SOMETHING PRACTICAL: ...and CONs
Nothing like entering the year on the cusp of a massive flu pandemic, which will be even worse for those who had COVID (because COVID forever changed the way our bodies react to other illnesses). We're also mid-recession. Inflation is out of control. There has been massive economic pain inflicted on the global economy that will have a ripple effect for some time.
Cons: In stealing billions, they stole the headlines in 2022. The business news cycle was littered with stories of controversial business leaders and hucksters. Now SBF and Elizabeth Holmes are behind bars, but who's to say whether more corporate or crypto-related malfeasance will come to light? In 2023, we'll see:
Consistency: No matter the industry or focus, companies are hemorrhaging good people. Yet these companies (and new ones springing up) remain saturated with talent and cannot take their collective feet off the gas. Keep building, keep investing, and keep spending (yes, spend when times are tough to reap the payoff when things pick up).
Consolidation: It's coming. It will happen in tech, media, finance, and other bloated, overly-developed sectors. We'll see mergers, acquisitions, buyouts, integrations, collaborations, and a struggling Creator Economy try to both lead and keep up. Consolidation of blockchains + tools, as well as livestreaming platforms. As the dust settles it’s clear the big companies are taking control and building for the long haul in these industries. It makes perfect sense that platforms like Apple Music (with the Super Bowl), Amazon Prime (with their fashion shows), Spotify (with their videocasts), and Google (see: YouTube).
Connection: The first and second generations of social platforms led to significant advances in the curation economy between 2009 and 2014, and we're seeing a rapid return of new/emerging platforms in the post-Twitter era. Distrust in Google and Meta is real. Marketers and consumers, alike, will have to balance their diet of creation and consumption, but curation may be the initial middle ground. It's honestly getting hard to keep up, but let's Be Real... Twitter isn't going to be the place where we all hang out. So... see you all on Post, Mastodon, Lens (not Lensa), Hive, Discord, and Spill?
Continuity: Of course, social media isn't dying, even if some platforms don't survive 2023 (or even the rest of 2022). The future of social media will continue to be rooted in “authenticity," and even if Be Real doesn't stick around, something newer and better will tap into the "realness.” While it's been days since I've been outside to "touch grass," people will continue to find ways to balance IRL and digital, and content preferences will change as a result. "Brands as the new influencers" has been a prediction for a while, but "community as the new celebrity" is going to happen thanks to web3 decentralization. That will also accompany the decline of influencers given the increasing punishment for their shilly promotions and failure to disclose.
SOMETHING POLITICAL: CONservative PROblems
The 2023 political scene will be divided into three parts:
A Republican-led House of Representatives will radically shut down the opportunity for any progress or hope of restoring the country (and the world) to economic or social prosperity. They will run hard from, and shut down and remaining January 6th investigations, instead throwing its inquiry might and spotlight onto Hunter Biden's laptop, illegal immigration, and the current Justice Department. No actual focus on righting the ship. No attempt at partnership.
A split, stagnating Congress reflects a public division and blocking of Joe Biden's agenda, and will exacerbate frustration with the government. Meanwhile, expect more horrific school shootings and mass gun violence tragedies that will go largely ignored.
That change in congressional balance will quickly be overshadowed by two big questions:
Who will the G.O.P get behind? The showdown for the 2024 Republican primaries will likely come down to three candidates: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and... a third wannabe foil TBD (Mike Pence? A more moderate or centrist candidate like Liz Cheney?). With Trump and DeSantis both running on similar platforms and claiming to be the true representatives of the party, the primary race will likely be contentious and divisive. Lots of Democrats are excited about an impending schism of the GOP, but there's a long way to go.
Not only do both Trump and DeSantis have a history of controversial statements and actions, but they also seem to have a knack for dividing their party and alienating potential voters. They draw strong support from very different factions within the party, and both have felt the backlash from other members of the GOP. One major concern for many within the Republican party is the potential damage that the primary race could do to the party's chances in the general election. Factions within the GOP become divided and less able to work together.
Additionally, the rhetoric and actions of both Trump and DeSantis have sparked criticism and backlash from outside the party. Trump's controversial and divisive policies and statements during his presidency (Stolen elections! Storm the Capitol!) have already damaged the GOP's reputation, and DeSantis' controversial statements and actions as governor of Florida have also caused concern nationally. Yet I'm much less optimistic that any division will "ruin" the party, and expect the core base to ultimately rally around the eventual winner of the race.
Will Biden seek re-election? Or better put... Does Joe Biden think Joe Biden is too old to run for re-election? Well, according to the 78-year-old President, the answer is a resounding "Maybe!" Biden's team has assured the public that the President is more than capable of handling the rigors of the job. "He's still got the energy of a man half his age," said one spokesperson. But only time (and his memory) will tell. But one thing is for sure - if he does decide to throw his hat in the ring again, it's sure to be a wild ride.
SOMETHING PERSONAL: PROs and...
No matter what you’re expecting, the headwinds feel extra strong at the moment. Markets are tanking, pandemics continue to soar, dissension and divisiveness prevail. Uncertainty can be a difficult and overwhelming experience for anyone, but it can be especially challenging for those who are naturally anxious.
For as long as I can remember, my personal anxiety has been tied to uncertainty. Uncertainty about how’d I’d fit into new social settings. Uncertainty about what profession to choose. Uncertainty about parenting decisions. Uncertainty in economic times…
In adopting strategies that help a naturally anxious person cope with uncertainty, I will admit to being a work in progress. Sometimes I just want to impatiently work myself through uncertainty and prepare for multiple scenarios and contingencies. Other times, I’m able to employ mindfulness tactics to focus on the present moment. This can involve taking slow, deep breaths and acknowledging thoughts and feelings without judgment. By bringing attention to the present moment, a person can ground themselves and feel more in control of their experience.
I also see seek support, guidance, and companionship from friends and family. When considering a career change, I’ll reach out to a variety of contacts in my personal and professional network in a phased approach: first just to stay connected and grounded. A trusted confidant can provide a listening ear, offer perspective, and help a person feel less alone. Once past those initial and most unsettling feeling, then I’ll extend my outreach to a broader network of contacts who can be helpful in more outcome-focused support.
Finally, it can be helpful to set small, achievable tasks and steps to focus on things that a person can control. This can help to provide a sense of accomplishment and a sense of control over one's environment, which can help to reduce anxiety.
Coping with uncertainty can be challenging, but it is possible to manage anxiety and find ways to cope with the uncertainty that life brings. By using strategies such as mindfulness, relaxation techniques, challenging negative thoughts, seeking support, and setting small goals, a naturally anxious person can learn to cope with uncertainty and live a fulfilling life.
No matter what comes to pass as we look ahead to 2023, I hope that we can come together as a global community and focus on positivity, unity, and prosperity. Despite the challenges and difficulties that lie ahead, I believe that the human shared will to persevere will give us all the strength and resilience to overcome any obstacle that comes our way. By working together and supporting one another, we can create a brighter future for ourselves and future generations.
Wishing you and your loved ones a wonderful holidays, a Happy New Year, and a better world for all!