PPPPlaying the Game: Four P's Episode 142
Super Bowl Ad Libbing, Stock Short Changes, Knowledge vs Belief and Imperfect Parenting.
Just back in from another round of shoveling as snow descended in just about every state in the union this week. Except Florida, where a storm of a different kind has struck: Super Bowl media frenzy! The Big Game will take place this Sunday between the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs and the hometown Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The future QB G.O.A.T. (Patrick Mahomes) against the current G.O.A.T. (Tom Brady). For the past 20 years, I've had a mixed feeling relationship with Tom Brady. As a fan of another rival NFL team for many years, his success was always painful. But as a University of Michigan college football fan, his success is a great reflection on that program.
I've become increasingly disenchanted with the NFL over the past five years, and disagreed with the decision to even have a season at all. I am amazed that the NFL made it through 20 weeks, though many teams had severe COVID issues. The NFL is the only sport where watching from home is definitively better than the in-stadium/arena experience, but every game with empty (or partially-filled) stands was a constant reminder of how terrible things are for so many people across the country.
As always, you can WATCH or LISTEN to this week’s content…. or just scroll down for some things personal, professional practical and political:
Super Bowl Ad Libbing.
Trading is Not Investing.
Imperfect Parenting.
Investing vs. Trading.
Something Professional: Super Bowl Ad Libbing
One thing I have truly grown to appreciate about the Super Bowl is the marketing spectacle that it has become. I appreciate the creativity of the advertising community taking center stage almost as much as I relish in the critical communal discussion about the quality of each ad. Of course, we know that not all of the "winners and losers" need to win with a television commercial, and a significant amount of long-time advertisers are actually sitting this one out. It will be curious to see how and where brands compete for our attention. I’ll care less about the game and more about what’s happening in the periphery. (My game prediction, if you care: Kansas City, 37-25.)
If this is a topic that interests you, I'll be hosting a live discussion with other luminaries in the marketing community during the game (starting at 6pm ET) on Clubhouse. Join us, listen in, ask questions and share your opinions! It is also my first Clubhouse hosting experience, so it's also possible that I'll screw things up royally. That, alone, is reason enough to tune in.
Something Practical: Trading is Not Investing.
Everything has already been said and written about last week's GameStop stock market frenzy -- from the debate on free market ideology to the Robinhood CEO's bizarro CNBC interview -- so I won't opine on the legality, morality or even viability of what happened. But what I will say that as a novice investor, is that last week was a whole lot of fun. I was caught up in the excitement in a way that compelled me to learn even more about what was happening, and why. It was strange to see everyone explaining to everyone else how they think the stock market works. It was also one of those rare moments when usually boring financial news dominated every conversation, including the one I had with the manager at our local hardware store when I popped in to buy light bulbs over the weekend.
For me, the key takeaway is that "investing" and "trading" are two VERY different things. Investing is a long-term strategy for growing wealth. It's about saving. Trading is micro-tactical. Short-term trading can be a means of building wealth for a select few, but it's also somewhat of a gamble. Leaving the volatility of $GME alone, I bought AMC stock as soon as the WSB Reddit crew in my Twitter feed said to do so... but only enough for it to be a fun gamble. I evaluated my own appetite for risk and bought an amount that I was ultimately okay with losing. It is the same mentality I adopt when sitting at blackjack table for a few hours.
Personally, I use the Stash and Public apps for my stock trading, but it was fascinating to see how Robinhood's decision to suspend trading of a dozen stocks completely decimated its brand in a matter of hours. But the potential risk for both traders AND investors is that the reduced barriers to entry with these apps enables those without knowledge or expertise to alter the market en masse
Like the guy who hits on 17 with the dealer showing a 3 because he “has a feeling," bad investing at scale could hurt everyone else. Of course, none of these issues exist with Bitcoin...
Something Personal: Imperfect Parenting
Every few days, I see this ad on Instagram or Facebook for a “Dad newsletter” subscription company. And while I've always been proudly immune to social media advertising, this one has really resonated lately. No, I haven't caved in and paid for a $99 annual subscription, but I've come close a few times.
These last 11 months have been unbearable for so many on every conceivable level. And while my kids are happy and healthy, I cannot help but feel we are missing out opportunities to do things together. Being stuck inside during the winter, without places to go, requires a level of creativity to get them off of their digital devices that I no longer possess. Hence why that dad newsletter hits home. The copy says something like... You only have a few years to form connections that have to last a lifetime. No pressure or anything. My kids turn 10 and 7 this year, so it's now-or-never before loading up the Harry Chapin on Spotify.
But do we really need external suggestions or some guide through the wilderness of the child-rearing years? While step-by-step directions to perfect parenthood would be nice, what if we stop trying to become the perfect parent and embrace being a flawed one instead? I've been a parent now for approximately 100,000 hours, far more than the 10,000 hours that establishes expertise. So that makes me more than qualified to share some practical advice to the tune of tuning into your natural intuitions and learn to accept yourself and your children just the way you are.
First, knowing which battles to pick is both art and science. Stop worrying or being afraid of other people’s judgment. Distinguish which rules are important for your family. And focus on the signals your child is giving you. Tuning in will help you to get off autopilot and access your intuition.
All set? Ha! If only it could really be that easy. Parenting is both an internal and external power struggle.
Ultimately, the biggest mindset change I've struggled with is maintaining realistic expectations for our kids. Also helpful has been the realization that parenting isn't transactional. We don't do things for them in the expectation of getting something back. Find ways to reduce stress by looking at the things we do for our kids that we can’t afford — either financially or emotionally. If driving them to school is adding extra stress, stop driving them (post-COVID, of course).
I touched on this a week or two ago, but it's the tech addiction that is probably stressing me out the most. Yet I am failing to lead by example. We all know how dangerous screen time is for our children, but there’s less attention to the ways that it’s permeated our lives as adults. We are modeling technology addiction and are not as present as we need to be. Distracted attention is profoundly disconcerting for kids because they never know when you’re listening. Setting time parameters for kids and ourselves is important. I know of one friend who, when they have to check their phone around his kids, will say, “Excuse me – I need to send an urgent message. I’ll be right back!” It sounds absurd, but saying aloud what you’re doing gives kids explicit information about when they do have your attention.
Parenting is a balance between letting your kids explore their own personality development... and firm leadership to keep them from significant bodily harm. Our kids should never think they are in charge. I mean, they’re emotionally immature little shitheads and completely unprepared for anything more than a small amount of personal independence. Establishing boundaries, even if you occasionally show some lenience with them, is important for their emotional development. Encountering situations where they don’t get their way is essential for building your children’s resilience. Remember that real change happens slowly and gradually. Instead of enforcing every boundary at once, build up over time.
So there is no perfect way to parent. Your intuition can tell you everything you need to know. And, most importantly, learn to see your children for who they really are. Let's realize that we're doing the best we can. Or at least have every intention to do the best we can. Let's remember to be grateful for the important things. For example, my kids love spending time together. They make each other laugh and play well on their own. They are creative, imaginative. They occasionally will fight over the remote control, but this is one aspect of parenting that I feel most fortunate, and find myself asking," What did we do right?" More than anything, I think we carefully balance any tendency to favor one child.
Though if anyone has any ideas what I can do with my kids this weekend while Mom is at work, I'm ready for any and all suggestions.
Something Political: Knowledge vs. Belief
When you think about the current spectrum of social and political ethos and the mapping of ideas, beliefs and values from Left to Right, it becomes increasingly visible just how much has changed. Anyone with any shred of redeeming value in society will decry violence and physical threats no matter their beliefs and ideology, yet the imbalance of hate and destruction in America stems from an increasingly vocal and active faction of the population.
The past four years have seen an emboldened a right wing extremist movement that expanded the spectrum of public discourse. This group, now exemplified by the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert, is bringing white supremacy, science denialism, weapon fetishism, anti-vaxxing and anti-masking to the forefront.
"Extremists" on the left, exemplified by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, push an agenda of racial and social equality, LGBTQ rights and marriage equality, healthcare for all, protecting the environment and a woman's right to choose, reducing gun violence and imposing a higher tax for the wealthiest 1% of Americans and corporations.
But this is no longer a question of Liberalism or Conservatism or even Democrats vs Republicans. The battle for our future comes down to understanding the difference between Knowledge and Belief.
Knowledge is what happens when people access facts, limited to what we possess, either by learning or by sensing. This is a slippery subject, as information that is inaccurate creates a false set of beliefs. There is a difference between knowing something to be true and believing it to be true. Every day, we’re inundated with information. Some of it is authentic. Some of it is misleading. And much of it is downright false. Knowledge is often intermingled with opinion and propaganda, and people circulate select knowledge within social and political bubbles.
Externalists argue that to know something is true, it’s sufficient to have a "relationship to the facts." Internalists are of the "seeing is believing" set, believing supporting evidence to validate beliefs as true. In short, externalists believe we can know something without clear-cut evidence, while internalists believe we can’t. Critical for differentiating between knowledge and belief is how we combine first party evidence with second-party "testimony." Reductionist thinkers believe we possess critical capabilities, like inference, memory, and perception. With these faculties, we are better able to assess the reliability of testimony, and the knowledge it contains.
Whether you fancy yourself an internalist, an externalist or a reductionist, knowledge is immutable. Truth cannot shift from person to person or between situations, but knowledge and belief become melded by context. For example, you may believe a professional basketball player to be tall. At 6'3" he is far taller than the average man (5'9"). Yet when compared to other players, he is much shorter in comparison, and might not be considered tall in this context. The notion of "tall or short" is a belief, whereas obtaining data for the average heights of both basketball players AND the broader population is knowledge.
Those who have learned to think critically and ask questions are better able to discern. Interrogating and understanding how we come to know what we know, and whether we really know what we think we know, encourages us to evaluate critically the information we take in, the beliefs we hold, and the knowledge we take for granted.
Now you know. Enjoy the game!