PPPPlace Your Bets (Four P's #197)
The World Cup, The Dotcom 2.0 Crash, Newsletters(s), and Election Stagnation
No, but really? FTX, Meta, Bitcoin, The Republican Party, and Twitter all suffered setbacks in the last week, and the surrounding impact zones touch almost all of us in some way. Are we all okay? But as we look towards the last few weeks of this bizarre year, you know I'm here to help you make sense of it all.
But let's start with something positive, because while we've got a long road ahead in terms of social, political, and financial strain, we can all come together and rally around the greatest sporting event in the world, the 2022 FIFA World Cup — which starts this weekend (even if this year's host, Qatar, is clouded in controversy.
Something Personal: The Wurst Cup (and World Cup)
Needless to say, I'm excited! The time differences aren't ideal, but hey, it's only 4 weeks. Only 8 countries have won the Men's FIFA World Cup since 1930: Brazil (5), Germany and Italy (4), Argentina, France and Uruguay (2), England and Spain (1). Seven of these eight are back (no Italy), and these countries will be among the favorites to win another.
If you’re going to be joining a World Cup pool, the top three contenders are familiar ones: Brazil, France, and Argentina are the popular picks to win it all.
Brazil is probably the most talented team in the world. Again. But can they put it all together? With Gabriel Jesus, Neymar, Raphinha, Richarlison, Rodrygo, Vinícius Júnior, and others to choose from, this team should score many, many golazos.
France has a reputation for taking every other World Cup off, but they still have Mbappe, Griezman, and Benzema upfront, and might have a better team now than they did four years back.
For Argentina, Leo Messi is still a world-class talent at age 35 but has fallen short in multiple World Cups dating back over a decade.
Who else could jump in and win one?
Germany had two terrible international showings in the last two major tournaments (the 2018 World Cup and 2021 Euros), but the 4-time world Cup Champions did cruise through World Cup Qualifying. Joshua Kimmich is the best player on the team, but this is likely Thomas Muller's last tournament (age 33), and he's still near the top of his game. Hmmm That Germany-Spain group stage game... whoooooo look out.
The current #2 ranked Belgians finished 3rd in 2018, but have the player I believe to be the best all-around attacking midfielder in the world, Kevin de Bruyne.
Is this the year an African team makes a deep run? Perhaps it will be Senegal. Headlined by Bayern Munich star Sadio Mane, the Lions of Teranga have the best chance of any of the continent's entries this year.
And the English... whose fans always believe them to be an elite team, yet they haven't even reached a World Cup final since their controversial win in 1966.
For very emotional reasons, I'd love to see Christian Eriksen and Denmark make a deep run. The guy almost died on the pitch last season and will be the centerpiece of the most talented Denmark World Cup entry ever.
For Portugal, Cristiano Ronaldo has had a terrible year, but even at age 37, he could spark some magic at his last World Cup.
I always root for the Dutch, whose 2022 return to the big stage is led by central defender Virgil van Dijk. This is the best country in history to never win it all.
Let's also watch to see if an even older Luka Modric lead Croatia back to glory (they were runners-up to France in 2018)?
As for our Americans, they should be expected to get out of the group stage, but may face a top-flight team as a reward for doing so. Unlike others, I'm not expecting this team to get past the round of 16, but you never know... I'd be happy with a win (tie?) against England on Black Friday.
The most important information: The Wurst Cup tournament pool is back again... dating back to 1998, this is only the 7th pool we've run (compared to 29 March Mattness NCAA pools), but this one is just as great. Get your picks in by 11/20 at noon, shoot me $20, and let's party!
Something Professional: Hold On To What We've Got
There have been some pretty absurd own-goals in the world of digital tech over the past few weeks, and resulting the Dotcom 2.0 Crash layoffs in my social feeds have been unlike anything I've felt or seen on these platforms since their inception. I want to help, and while my company is only hiring a few roles at a time, I want to be a connector and facilitator. There are so many great people looking for roles, and I will share as many as I can on LinkedIn.
So how did we get here? Multiple factors are converging at once, starting with the global economic downturn. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the inflation from two years of allowing COVID to spread, and surges of fascism around the world. At a professional level, you can blame Web 2.0 mismanagement and failure to adapt to a changing consumer... as well as new Web3 misguidance and failures to incorporate previous learnings and marketing 101 frameworks.
The Twitter implosion is self-created and beyond sad. People are also starting to place their bets as to when Twitter goes dark completely. Incredibly talented, smart, kind people are all out of work (it's all involuntary, even if they did "resign") and the platform is facing one existential crisis after another. How long this can go on... how does it end? I honestly have no idea. But I have built too much of a presence and network on that site for me to just abandon it no matter what others are doing.
With the FTX crash, I'll just say that I find it hard to believe that no one saw this coming. I've been saying for years that centralized exchanges are not the future of cryptocurrency, the blockchain, Web3, NFTs, or any of it. But it's also a great reminder that crypto and NFTs are two VERY different applications on the blockchain. One is a fungible, financial, speculative asset subject to market fluctuation. The other is a technology platform for brands, marketers, publishers, creators, agencies, etc. to redefine and unlock consumer and fan value. Marketing's future will be built on tokenized loyalty and engagement models.
Companies in the Web3 space are doing very different things -- understanding where FTX, Bitcoin Inc., Roblox, Decentraland, Coinbase, OpenSea, and Mint fit into the space is important. (You didn't paint Bernie Madoff, Bear Stearns & Co., Twitter, Google, Amazon, Yahoo, and Apple all with the same brush in 2008, right?)
I'm also a believer in the potential use cases for cryptocurrency, but some of the companies that made money hosting your crypto wallets haven't been great representatives of that potential. It's like the early Web 1.0 dot com era. These companies are well-funded, competing for mainstream attention and adoption but don't put the right foundations in place. Web 1.0 succeeded when builders of products worked with managers of process.
Web3 is at a critical, yet still-early point in its development... and the internet of the future is still being built. As Gary Vee has said (often), “balancing patience with ambition” is going to be key.
Something Practical: The Extra “s” is for “Stay Informed”
Between new Discord channels popping up as alternatives to #MarketingTwitter or subscribing to smart newsletters, there's a lot you can be doing to keep up with the changes, and new developments about Web3, blockchain, NFTs, and the next phase of digital marketing and technology.
For newsletter management, I use Newsletterss, which provides members with an email that can be used for all newsletter subscriptions without cluttering an actual inbox. It’s great. Some newsletters (daily and weekly) that I recommend are:
For Web3: NFT Lately, Web3 Daily, Milk Road, The Daily Ralpha, “Web 2.5”, TPan’s Web3… and Jump
For all else: Berky’s Serial Marketer, Marketing Brew, Spatial Awareness, Semafor, Raisin Bread
And I'll also be keeping my eyes on ON_Discourse, founded by Toby Daniels, and joined by some elite, experienced, talented people in the media and marketing space. Described as a member-driven omnichannel media company run by business experts focused on the business of technology, they are set to deliver on its missions: to provide a voice not heard in business and technology, and challenge conventional thinking to provoke meaningful thought. So... out with the old, in (on?) with the new...
When it comes to Web3 and learning, there is no replacement for experimentation and trial. I'm happy to give you all a free Mint NFT from our demo account, which shows just how easy it is to buy/sell/claim/redeem a free NFT. We removed the barriers to entry with branded NFTs at Mint. I believe the future of NFTs is in free “earn-to-own” models for loyalty because paid NFTs aren’t working at the moment.
Orrrrrr you can buy one the more traditional way... To celebrate the first anniversary of my son minting his first NFTs 1 year ago, we've slashed prices on his original edition of Jakebots #NFTs for this month only, with all proceeds going to Movember men's health charities. The cheapest starts at .005 eth (like $5) plus gas fees. (Also, he's 11 and draws these all over our house) --> https://opensea.io/collection/jakebots
Something Political: Election Day Winners and Losers
It's hard to believe it's only been a week since Election Day, and yet things are still not settled and decided here in these somewhat United States. Pretty incredible that we're in this digital age of instantaneous information. I'm still recovering from all of the vote counting, fallout, feedback, and runoff planning.
At last check, votes are STILL being counted and recounted, which I'm honestly okay with. After the legitimacy of the last election was called into question, I would rather they get all of this right the first time. But no matter where the numbers land, the consensus was that it was a good night for the Democrats because it wasn't as bad a night for Democrats as they were predicting. Hmmmm. Not sure how I feel about that logic, but let's look at three reasons to be optimistic AND three reasons to be pessimistic.
Optimism Abounds:
The red wave was barely a red spotting. The predictions for a "bloodbath" and complete Republican sweep at national and local levels just didn't happen. Which is rare considering how poorly first-term mid-term elections go for the incumbent's party. Voters also rallied to protect a woman’s right to choose in key states. The courts and GOP leadership once again misunderstood and underestimated the American electorate's desire for pro-choice policies.
Several crypto and Web3-friendly politicians are headed to Washington. Whether they can accomplish anything…?
Trump is (nearly) sunk. He’s a distraction and dangerous fringe element of the Republican Party and threatens to tear it apart from within. I won’t say he’s dead because I’ve seen enough Halloween movies to know you can’t fully kill a man in a mask (or orange bronzer)
But also...
My local area in New York completed the transition from blue to red that began with local elections a year ago. Long Island is now firmly red, with a few exceptions. For the first time in 26 years, my elected representative doesn't actually represent me. Dating back to my freshman year in college in Philadelphia back in 1996 to Manhattan in 2000 to Long Island in 2013, my House representative has always been a Democrat. Three reasons for this: traditional independent or even Democratic-leaning anti-maskers jumped ship for the dumbest of reasons; the redistricting that redrew several Long Island congressional districts for the worse; and the short-sighted decision by outgoing congressman Tom Suozzi to run for governor and abandon his seat.
Florida Latinos are firmly Republicans, and while it makes no sense that they keep voting AGAINST their interests, Florida is no longer a swing state in national elections. Governor Ron DeSantis solidifies his position as a leader in the party and will be a frontrunner going into the Republican primaries for the 2024 election.
With a GOP-controlled House and a split government, we are years away from making any progress whatsoever on important legislation on gun safety, climate change and green energy, LGBTQ protections, investments in mental health, economic reform for the underprivileged classes, and underserved communities, federally decriminalized marijuana.
In the meantime, Happy Anniversary to my gorgeous bride! 14 years ago tonight, we sweated (and danced) our way through a way-too-humid service and reception, all under the joyful eyes of family, friends, and maybe some deity. But that November rainstorm was the last time I remember anything but rainbows and sunshine. Love you!
And I like the rest of you a lot, too!