PPPPhilosophies & Monopolies: Four P's (#207)
Safe Stress, Amazon Adventures, The Jordan Era, and Ticking TikTok Clock
In pursuit of Ikigai, an ancient philosophy that has enveloped the way Japanese people live, how many of us have jobs that enable us to do:
- What you love
- What you're good at
- What you can get paid for
- What's good for the world
When the first two overlap, that's your passion. When the middle two overlap, that's your profession. When the first and last overlap, that's your mission.
So Is anyone checking all four boxes? I’ve had three a few times… But talking with a friend a few weeks ago (a loyal Four Ps subscriber, we're calling her "Kelly"), she reminded me that professional pivots are incredible opportunities to refocus on personal satisfaction as well as actual needs in society. Kelly has been an extremely talented performer and entertainer for over two decades and recently expanded her focus to address issues around mental health.
As a broader topic, mental health has become a much more mainstream topic. The conversations are happening and support networks are growing. Yet the gap between “broad acceptance” and “individual need” remains wide. Many still struggle personally and aren’t addressing it privately (the stigmas can be paralytic), but we're starting to see increasing trends toward more openness, transparency, and even proactivity, we still have a long way to go.
SOMETHING PRACTICAL: Adding More Stress to Our Diet
Very candidly, my mental and emotional health is tied to real-world triggers. My baseline "normal" is probably a higher state of stress than whatever is considered "normal." The older we get and the more responsibilities we have, the more hectic our lives become. It’s a race against time (or running out of time). For some, stress can feel like a giant elephant sitting on their chest.
In the days since that conversation, I've thought about how to push creative boundaries and navigate the realm of professional uncertainty with healthy stress. We’ve all heard a million times that stress is bad for us and that it’s the cause of most illnesses. But the hectic pace might actually good for us. Not only is it possible to thrive WITH stress, but forcing ourselves to eliminate it (or even reduce it) can be even MORE unhealthy. Not all stress is bad, and it may be time to think about it differently.
What is stress, really? A reaction that occurs when something you care about is at stake. The compelling need to create change. The pursuit of purpose. The resistance to challenge. The enemy of complacency. Stress is the pressure to perform. And we know what Billie Jean King says about pressure.
Through the ages, it seems like our bodies have developed ways to handle stress in much more complex and ingenious ways than we realize. In one study, researchers discovered that high levels of stress increased the risk of death by as much as 43%, but this was only in people who believed stress was harmful. Those who reported higher stress levels but didn’t believe it was harmful had the lowest risk of death of all participants, leading to the conclusion that stress is harmful – when you believe it is.
I may not convince you to run TOWARDS stress, but it's unavoidable, and our goal should be to learn to handle it effectively. Positivity and mindset can impact your body's health as it shapes how you think, act, and feel. As humans, we can use stress to engage with challenges, connect with those around us and grow from the experience. A few responses can help us to face difficulties with a positive outlook:
Challenge response: Similar to the fight-or-flight response, but suited to situations that don't threaten your survival. Our bodies release cortisol and adrenaline to generate a feeling of self-confidence and the motivation to learn from a tough experience.
"Tend-and-befriend" response: Talk to a close friend or loved one when feeling stressed. Here our bodies release oxytocin ("the love molecule") which encourages us to connect with others through relationships.
The stress paradox, where happy lives contain stress, and stress-free lives don’t guarantee happiness, indicates that meaningful life can be a stressful one. A slate of studies over the past decade back this up. Countries with higher levels of stress were also likely to have a higher GDP, longer life expectancy, and improved quality of living. Conversely, countries with low levels of stress were prone to high levels of corruption, poverty, hunger, or violence. People who reported the greatest number of stressful events in their past were most likely to consider their lives meaningful.
Embracing anxiety instead of avoiding it is crucial in shifting one's mindset and avoiding an anxiety-avoidance cycle, and the common physical symptoms of nervousness can actually be beneficial if channeled in the right way. H.B.S. professor Alison Wood Brooks found that by simply repeating a positive mantra such as "I am excited," individuals can improve their performance, confidence, and overall mindset.
Authentic exchanges with other people transform our stress into bravery, confidence, and wisdom. Stress can help us improve our ability to care, cooperate, and show compassion by activating the tend-and-befriend response, which triggers the social caregiving, reward, and attunement systems in the brain. This response is activated when we choose to help others and is demonstrated to dispel fear and anxiety.
Stress can also result in positive changes and personal growth. The idea that adversity helps us learn and grow is not new. People who see the upside of things can take proactive steps to deal with their stress and demonstrate a healthier physical response to stress, with faster recovery times and a reduced risk of depression, heart attacks, and diseases.
So no, stress isn’t always bad for you. If you approach stressful experiences as something you can learn from, then you certainly will.
SOMETHING PROFESSIONAL: Amazon’s River Flowing
Are we in a recession? A blip? A downturn? It depends on who you ask, honestly. Bust consumer "health" metrics are sending mixed signals, that's for sure. Advertising budgets likely scream "CAUTION" for the next year. Tightening their belts, marketers are focused on costs and margins.
Amazon is very much a canary in the coal mine... We're seeing brands back-weight their marketing spend toward 2H – shifting more ad spend toward 2H gives the company more optionality to pull back budgets if the macro takes a turn for the worse. Others report leaning into SEO in this environment to drive sales more organically and cheaply than by spending directly on marketing.
Of note, advertisers are increasingly interested in using Amazon for higher-funnel advertising. Reach. Awareness. Branding? One of the most exciting areas of Amazon’s ad offering right now is the upper-funnel opportunities, including CTV and the Alexa home screen. Agencies saw success placing ads on Amazon’s Thursday Night Football inventory last year despite the crappy games, meaning the opportunity for strategic, creative execution with a full-funnel strategy on Amazon can be solid. And its NFT marketplace is very much just around the corner
One area where Amazon has been a quiet leader is in the use of Artificial Intelligence. No, not the generative AI hype that's stolen the headlines, but within the Amazon advertising space specifically, many of the top ecommerce agencies use AI to optimize and manage PPC campaigns. No surprise that AI-based bidding is superior to rules-based bidding, as the AI can pick up on non-linear relationships that may seem counterintuitive. We are going to see, if we haven't already, that AI is increasingly being used for content generation: blog post ideas, listing copy, including titles and descriptions, and perhaps even photography.
Yes, I talk a lot about blockchain and AI, but that's because they're changing so many aspects of business and daily life - more so behind the scenes than glaringly obvious examples. But I remain most bullish on open ledger blockchain applications in operational capacities. Though supply chain challenges weighed on Amazon and the broader eCom ecosystem since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, these issues largely seem to have subsided for most companies. Guess how we know this...
Following China’s reopening late last year, many companies feel as comfortable with their supply chains and ability to meet demand as they have in years. Relatively lower shipping costs, lower fuel costs, the price of importing goods from overseas significantly down, Amazon's direct import program, and the use of blockchain solutions have boosted margins.
Also: Amazon is cutting 10k jobs. So who knows WTF is happening there...
SOMETHING PERSONAL: The Jordan Era
As a teenager in the summer of 1993, I befriended several teenage members of the Jordanian royal family during an international summer exchange program here in the United States.
When American-born and Princeton-educated Lisa Halaby married the King of Jordan to become Queen Noor Al-Hussein, it solidified the relationship between the two nations in perpetuity. Yet even in the early 90s, the border between Jordan and Israel had not been fully opened, and relations between Israel and neighboring countries remained dubious.
Yet these kids were awesome: intelligent, open-minded, generous understanding. They were the center of the social scene. They fit in as well, if not even better than many European and American members of the group. They had talked about wanting to come back to the U.S. to attend a university here, but I lost touch with them in the years after the program ended.
To be honest, I’d forgotten all about them. But thanks to the power of digital and social connectivity, we recently reconnected and have been emailing, but we’ve yet to broach international, social, or political topics. I tried very hard to get at least one to join March Mattness, just so I can add “members of the Jordanian Royal family” to my famous pool teaser… “The only known NCAA Tournament pool to include NBA Hall-of-Famers, Olympics gold medalists, college stars, coaches, past colleagues, friends & a Supreme Court justice!” Maybe next year.
SOMETHING POLITICAL: Regulators, mount up!
I’ve long believed that a strong central government can and should act in ways that protect its citizens from threats, both foreign and domestic. We elect representatives to define, defend from, and deploy countermeasures against those threats. But at some point, especially with privately held companies, there needs to be a balance where the market and consumer community hold greater influence.
Last week, the Securities and Exchange Commission (a.k.a.: “The SEC” to its friends) served a Wells notice on crypto exchange Coinbase. Meaning: Regulation is coming. With these Wells notices, regulators alert a prospective respondent of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and allow the respondent to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker.
Although few details are known about the notice, Coinbase claims to have tried to "register by the book," but was unable to receive guidance to respond or prepare. Critics argue the SEC should offer more guidance instead of pursuing a strategy of "regulation by enforcement." Yet the precedent is clearer here than the actual notice, a foundation for how crypto platforms can and should operate in the U.S. moving forward.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration has been less than friendly towards the crypto sector, according to its recently published annual Economic Report of the President. The report concludes that crypto assets "do not offer investments with any fundamental value" and are not an "effective alternative to fiat money." The SEC has taken actions against Silvergate Bank, Signature Bank, the Kraken exchange, and most recently: the KuCoin exchange. The New York Attorney General's office recently alleged that by selling Ethereum (ETH), KuCoin was pedaling unregistered securities. If proven in court, this would place Ethereum under the purview of the SEC. Internationally, the official reception and adoption of cryptocurrencies are much warmer, and many enthusiasts argue that Bitcoin could be a viable replacement for fiat money in a world of hyperinflation and a devalued dollar.
This happened a day before TikTok CEO Shouzi Chew testified before an openly hostile bipartisan Congressional committee. While this is a topic I’m far more open to regulation on given the broader detrimental impact that social media is having on our population, the public spectacle of the hearings was more of an issue, and undermines the actual challenges and potential threats that TikTok poses.
House Energy and Commerce Committee chairwoman, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, opened the day demanding that TikTok should be banned. Lawmakers voiced their concerns over the app's data collection practices and possible impact on children. Chew insisted that the company is not an arm of the Chinese government and emphasized its independence from China. He also highlighted that the data TikTok collects is similar to the data collected by other companies in the industry. However, lawmakers interrupted Chew's testimony and accused him of avoiding their questions.
The support to force TikTok into either spinning off or significantly opening itself up to regulatory oversight is growing and could have a massive impact not just on the Creator Economy and social media, but broader communication-based commerce moving forward. Personally, I deleted the TikTok app from my phone over a year ago once a former employee alerted me to some of the truths happening behind the scenes, so maybe the clock really is ticking...