PPPPaltry Poultry Party: Four P's #133
Big turkeys may be spared in large numbers... but our economy is still overstuffed.
Happy Thanksgiving from the Four Ps! And as you prepare for the holidays, here’s some advice from a particular medical expert in my family:
“I implore you all to keep your family Thanksgivingseses small, remote and virtual this week. As hard as it may be, show your family how much you love them by NOT seeing them.”
The only good news this year might be for the giant turkeys, whose lives will spared since they're not needed in great quantities. I'm guessing a family of four or five only needs a three pound turkey, not a 25-pound bird.
It's hard to believe we're approaching Month 9 as a third wave of COVID runs rampant. This is because a large minority of our country believes that masks are now political. Your stupidity has ruined it for the rest of us, so thanks. But it's not too late to stop the scourge.
To paraphrase from a meme I saw, socially distant thanksgivings means no Christmases in the ICU or New Years Eve funerals.
On that positive note... watch the weekly vidcast here, or just keep reading.
1. Something Personal: “Nice!”
For those of you who haven't watched the video yet, I encourage you to do so. Brian Baumgartner, who played Kevin Malone in "The Office," joined The Four Ps this week to give some advice on working from YOUR home office at least through the winter, among some other topics… including what he's most looking forward to doing post-COVID. (Starts around the 7-minute mark of the video). Kevin was always my favorite character from the Office, a guaranteed laugh every time. It's why a clip of him laughing has been the final scene of our opening montage video since for years now, and I hope it makes you smile, too. (Watch here:)
2. Something Practical: Running From the Stock Market
It's time to re-think your investment strategy, and reconsider the stock market altogether. If you've been paying attention this election season (or really these past 10-20-100 years), we're experiencing a staggering degree of financial inequality. There's a backstory here that most people either don't pay attention to (most people), can't understand (some people) or simply don't care (few people). So here's the Four P's take:
For years now, the global economic output has stagnated. Some companies do well. Most have not. When this happens, governments can lower interest rates to pump money into the financial sector. At this point, there aren't many more options. But this does little to stimulate real economic growth and funnels wealth right to the very top. Hence, the inequality. As of this year, the world’s top 20 billionaires own more wealth than the bottom half of the world’s population combined.
Stock Market ≠ Economy
But look at the stock market, some will tell you. But the truth is, the stock market is not a good measure of how the economy is doing. The U.S. national debt, a measure of how much we owe to other countries, is now over $26 trillion and rising at a rate of over a trillion dollars every year. It’s unlikely this can ever be paid off. The Federal Reserve, which sets our financial policies, has driven this bloated national debt higher and higher. The main reason the Fed expands the money supply is to combat recession. During recessions, people normally hold on to their money and take fewer risks. So the Fed’s main strategy for stimulating economic growth is to make borrowing cheaper – that way, it’s less risky for people to take out loans that they can then spend or invest.
But it's harder now to actually cut interest rates, because they're already so low. But the banks can control where their money is lent, and that goes straight to the top instead of your average Joe on the street. So - and follow me here because this is the issue - when banks lend or give subsidies to it to major corporations, these corporations have bought back their OWN stock. In doing so, they reduce the number of shares on the market, and the remaining shares automatically go up in value as a result. That's artificial wealth, my friends, pumping wealth into the investor class and driving stock prices to the all-time high values. Basically, the stock market has been built on a big pile of debt, not growth.
It Wasn't Always This Way
In the past, financial markets were representative of reality and myriad socio-economic-political conditions. But the stock market now is no longer connected to these realities. This gap between the stock market and the economy exists because the Fed Reserve supports Wall Street no matter what, and what's resulted is a world where what’s bad for the economy tends to be good for Wall Street. Now, when the Federal Reserve pushes money into the system, the markets rise. If it tries to take money out, markets drop. That's not a market. That's a closed loop.
Because interest rates can't drop any lower, the U.S. dollar as a global current standard, is at risk of inflation. Financial insiders know this, but many are trying to cash in and load up as much, and as quickly as possible. So that's another reason for false market highs. Then, as financial markets become more overvalued, the riskier it will be for investors. Eventually, they’ll be frightened away. And as we know, when enough investors start selling, this will precipitate a market crash like we’ve never seen before.
Market conditions are ripe for a serious drop. Historians note that current conditions look a lot like what preceded the Great Depression a century ago, from social inequality to the growth of massive asset bubbles in the financial markets. In the 10 years before 1929, the Dow Jones rose 400%. In the past decade, it’s done exactly the same thing.
A global Monetary Reset Is Coming.
In the past 50 years, since the U.S. Dollar was decoupled from the gold standard (Thanks, Nixon!), the only thing backing the dollar’s value has been faith that the USA will maintain the integrity of its currency. But as we fall deeper and deeper into debt... as the Fed continues to dilute the dollar in order to pay for it, that faith is crumbling. The U.S. dollar is in danger of losing its reserve currency status, more nations around the globe are seeking to transition away from the dollar than ever before. So what's the alternative? Diversification, for now. Some stocks, but also gold and even cryptocurrency. Sure, stocks have reached record highs in recent years, but they’ve still been massively outperformed by gold.
If we assume that interest rates stay at around 1.5% if you invested in the stock market today, you’d make 4x the return on your investment in about 100 years. Contrast that with gold, which is now worth 78x what it was a century ago. Unlike dollars, which can and are printed without real restriction, gold has been mined in very limited supply.
Depending on where you are in life, pulling back from the stock market could save you in the short- and mid-term. If you're under, say, age 30, it might still be worth riding it out. But be prepared for some massive drops along the way.
3. Something Professional:
As an unconventional professional calendar year begins to wind down, this is the time that many managers and employees begin thinking about reviews, whether in the next few weeks or after the new year. While not all companies mandate this step, the process usually starts with a self-assessment. It's a time for reflection, being vocal, proactive and expressive of your needs, goals and needs. As well as asking for help, direction and guidance.
It's perfect timing considering that over the weekend, i gleaned some key lessons and insights from Wayne Baker's new book, All You Have to Do is Ask.
In many cases, whether or not you succeed depends on a somewhat less-obvious skill: your ability to ask for help. And yet most people struggle to request assistance. They worry that such a request will make them look incompetent or that it will simply be denied. But when we allow ourselves to ask for help, we unlock resources that may have otherwise remained forever hidden to us. If we don’t ask, people won’t know what we need. And if people don’t know what we need, they can’t help us. Studies show that as much as 90 percent of the help provided in the workplace occurs only after assistance has been requested.
We routinely underestimate other people’s willingness and ability to help. So next time you feel stressed at work, or especially now with annual goal-setting, don’t hold back. Talk with your manager, reach out to a colleague and experience the power of asking for help.
I know this is challenging, but to the managers and leaders watching this, remember that a company’s culture, systems, procedures, and practices are not set in stone. While current environments may stop us from asking for and giving help, when a workplace is psychologically safe, employees feel comfortable asking questions, admitting mistakes, and bringing up problems.
And for employees, especially junior ones, my advice... expressing our needs has multiple benefits. We become more effective at our jobs. It opens up new job opportunities. It can help us adapt better and more quickly to new circumstances. It boosts team performance and creativity. So next time you need help, don’t hesitate to reach out.
4. Something Political:
In this uniquely historic presidential transition period between Trump and Biden, post-election legal battles aren't exactly what's new and different. What is, however, is that these tenuous legal challenges from Trump campaign lawyers, and in some cases, administration officials, represent the last dying gasps of a racist presidency.
I still have some faith in the justice and legal systems to hold the line, though maybe that's foolish of me. Either way, the election-related challenges and lawsuits, all of which are being tossed out of court and laughed at by judges, are coming in areas where there are disproportionate minority votes - Detroit, Philly, Atlanta... doesn't it seem strange that this us where the allegations of fraud and widespread voter irregularities are coming from?
No matter the institution - whether it's workplaces, communities or large geographic voting blocks, one group is open to and embraces diverse and representative voices, while the other's entire strategy is to keep those voices in check.
Thanks for reading. See you next week,